BOYCOTT POLITICS: MDC FACES EXTINCTION IF THEY BOYCOTT POLL!!!

 

 

By "ZIMPATRIOT"

 

Noting recent statements by the MDC of Morgan Tsvangirai to boycott the March slated poll, I have decided to write this article in order to set the record straight on the consequences of boycotting.

 

Although MDC Tsvangirai's arguments are quite understandable, it remains a fact that them boycotting the poll is unlikely to take away some legitimacy that Robert Mugabe will get if he wins it.  Although it would have been quite effective for the united MDC of pre-October 2005 to boycott the senate poll of that year, the system is much more different now.  The fact remains that the other faction reneged and participated in that poll.  That added some legitimacy to the Senate elections and the outside world could not say much against it even though the voter turnout was a paltry 19%.  Such electoral outcomes are supposed to be discarded under normal circumstances.  In some universities in South Africa, an SRC election is rendered legitimate if the voter turnout is 25% or more.  You would expect national elections to be run better.  However in the 2005 scenario, the government worked round the clock through their Herald newspaper, to make sure that the Ncube faction appeared stronger.  This was a de-facto campaign for Ncube's faction, in the hope that they would win the day as far as Senate elections were concerned, thereby forcing the MDC to participate resulting in Mugabe acquiring some legitimacy.  Ncube was unaware of this trap and it was not surprising when his faction was complaining of reduced media airtime soon after the Senate poll.  Surely, the government had done its part and there was no need to continue engaging the faction especially after the arrival of the NASA rocket scientist.

 

What is quite likely is that the Mutambara faction is going to participate anyhow whether Mbeki succeeds or not.  This means that even if Tsvangirai pulls out, Mutambara goes in with his MDC and will probably take some votes from Tsvangirai's registered voters.  The world will just say, look MDC is represented in the elections, Mugabe has won, and surely this should be legitimate.  This is what Mutambara is praying for; that Tsvangirai foolishly pulls out.  Boycott politics is much more irrelevant under those circumstances.  We also note that Mutambara and Tsvangirai are yet to lock horns in the volatile region of Matebeleland.  This has resulted in some instances where the Mutambara faction competes alone with Zanu-PF hence the claim that Matebeleland is their stronghold.  Tsvangirai can actually prove some support in this region by locking horns with Mutambara next year and proving his mettle.

 

The MDC should also know that boycotting the poll means job losses to some vibrant MP's.  Their role will be left to being mere Harvest House politicians with no platform to be heard.  Boycotts are effective when the opposition as a whole boycotts, resulting in the international community rendering the poll outcome irrelevant.  However, the reality is that the opposition now is riddled by divisions and thus unable to operate as a unit.  Tsvangirai's boycott will thus end up being a non-event resulting in his faction sliding into eternal extinction.  We heard Gabriel Chaibva quite clearly when he said they are prepared to match Mugabe bruise for bruise even if Tsvangirai boycotts.  This should sound a warning to Tsvangirai.  This might also mean that the Mutambara faction might gain headway in Harare and some towns, where they are very unpopular and unlikely to score a sizeable number with good competition.  The fact that they still use the name MDC is to their advantage and will mean they will court some MDC voters who are still confused with regards to the relationship between these two formations.

 

The MDC must also note that participating in these elections is not akin to committing suicide. There are many possibilities of the opposition fighting the government outside parliament even if it happens that Zanu-PF rigs.  Even if Mbeki fails in bringing a free and fair election and it so happens that Zanu-PF unlawfully wins, the MDC can mobilise supporters in diaspora, targeting embassies and parliaments with protests, demanding their right to vote.  I say diaspora because a protest is difficult to organise in Zimbabwe today considering what happened to Gift Tandare and colleagues who tried to stage some protests.  The majority is too scared to risk life in such a manner.  Diasporan protests however are quite effective if they all happen at the same time and correctly targeted.  It would be pointless to target some streets where politicians don't reside.  If today Zimbabweans demand their right to vote at Botswana, South Africa, UK, Australia, America, Zambia and New Zealand parliaments and claim that elections were rigged and that they were unfairly left out, the international community will feel the heat to be involved and take away some legitimacy from the poll.

 

This is what happened in the Zimbabwe-Rhodesia elections in 1979 which were won by Muzorewa.  The boycott was effective because both ZANU and ZAPU and their people boycotted and continued with the war.  The international community saw that the outcome could not bring peace and thus took away some legitimacy from Muzorewa.  This made Lord Carrington, Margaret Thatcher and their team to think again and organise something to bring peace and end to the war.  The situation could have been different had either of the two formations participated.  This is the same predicament the MDC faces and swift decisions are required to be made.

 

The ball is surely in the MDC court for them to make a decision that will suit their supporters.  MDC is advised to continue with their campaign launch and not wait till February like what they did in 2005 resulting in Zanu-PF gaining headway in rural Matebeleland added by the unwillingness of Ncube and Sibanda to campaign outside their constituencies so as to isolate Tsvangirai who did most of the campaign work criss-crossing the country, this meant to increase the heat on him ahead of the slated February 2006 congress.  After announcing plans to boycott polls in August 2004, this is what Nathaniel Manheru had to say during that period, "Call it boy-caught, boy-court or whatever, the MDC's decision to boycott is akin to a man who retreats from life to a baby-coat."